The flood is on

It's difficult to say when it actually began, because the slow overland melt has been occurring for about two weeks already. But the tipping point for major flooding surely was when the storm expected to bring snow over the weekend turned warmer and gave us rain instead. That's when the fields quickly turned liquid. From the air, I imagine the landscape looks like a giant thawing waffle, with the syrupy water overflowing from one section to another.

The field across the road from our house crested last night. It might sound strange to talk about a farm field having a flood crest, but this time of year, every piece of land has potential for temporary water storage. The road leading from our house to the nearest town appears to be safe. But the river continues to rise, first quickly, then slowly.

The view from Norman County

This is a common sight now. Rural farmhouses formerly surrounded by fields of snowdrifts are losing ground to an expanding lakeshore. It shouldn't be surprising or alarming. Migrating waterfowl have been using these "prairie potholes" for millennia. March has welcomed geese, ducks, and even swans to these temporary, cool pools. If tradition holds, the elegant and ancient cranes will arrive in April. It will be wet for awhile. All we can do is enjoy the view.

The winter that won't end

Our little river was rising significantly and turning into a big river until...until the cold March storm hit. It started as rain and thunder, transitioned to ice and then snow. Now the river is resting again, asleep until winter's claw releases control of the season. But the basement of our house continues to seep. I think the soil is well on its way to thawing out, even if above ground winter has the day.

The landscape is quiet

The wheel of time is creaking slowly on a frozen axis. Puddles form in the fields and ditches. Bare patches of grass are revealed on south-facing slopes. Tributaries are rising slowly. The day-melt and night-freeze cycle is good for sap flow in the trees and for moderating flood potential. But it is now spring and the seasonal precipitation is the final determining factor for the flood equation of 2011. As of today, it remains unsolved.

The momentum begins today

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND

1158 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011  ...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

...SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WILL INITIATE SPRING THAW THIS WEEK...  A SHIFT IN THE LARGE-

SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA 

AND NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS WEEK. DAY-TIME HIGHS IN THE 

MID-40S AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BASIN 

WILL START THE SNOW MELT THERE. ADDITIONALLY...A COMPLEX AND POTENT SPRING STORM 

SYSTEM MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND 

SNOW IN THE NORTH. THE RAIN WOULD ACCELERATE THE SNOW MELT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF 

THE BASIN AND ADD TO THE SNOWMELT RUN OFF. SEE THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK BELOW FOR MORE 

DETAILED INFORMATION.

The plain and simple facts

The floodplain belongs to the river. We can delineate it, map it, drain it, and dredge it. But we can no more do away with a floodplain than we can do away with gravity itself. Would a man sitting in a bathtub expect never to get wet?

We have altered the landscape to such a degree that predicting the severity of flooding from year to year is extremely difficult. Distant records are of little use; the land today does not resemble the land back then.

There will be a flood in the spring of 2011. But we are merely spectators, with a front row seat to one of Nature's most powerful Earth-shaping tools.

The snow/water equivalent

Click to enlarge. That's a lot of water to discharge!