The momentum begins today

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND

1158 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011  ...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

...SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WILL INITIATE SPRING THAW THIS WEEK...  A SHIFT IN THE LARGE-

SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA 

AND NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS WEEK. DAY-TIME HIGHS IN THE 

MID-40S AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BASIN 

WILL START THE SNOW MELT THERE. ADDITIONALLY...A COMPLEX AND POTENT SPRING STORM 

SYSTEM MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND 

SNOW IN THE NORTH. THE RAIN WOULD ACCELERATE THE SNOW MELT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF 

THE BASIN AND ADD TO THE SNOWMELT RUN OFF. SEE THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK BELOW FOR MORE 

DETAILED INFORMATION.

The plain and simple facts

The floodplain belongs to the river. We can delineate it, map it, drain it, and dredge it. But we can no more do away with a floodplain than we can do away with gravity itself. Would a man sitting in a bathtub expect never to get wet?

We have altered the landscape to such a degree that predicting the severity of flooding from year to year is extremely difficult. Distant records are of little use; the land today does not resemble the land back then.

There will be a flood in the spring of 2011. But we are merely spectators, with a front row seat to one of Nature's most powerful Earth-shaping tools.

The snow/water equivalent

Click to enlarge. That's a lot of water to discharge!

The February thaw

A warm Chinook wind gave us a week of March-like weather a month early. It may have given some trees a false start, too, as the air temperature rose about 32 degrees (F) during the day and sometimes stayed there at night.

The snowpack was compressed and some water began to puddle underneath, but local rivers appear generally unaffected so far. The temporary thaw served as a window into the future, when March will soon be a reality. Everyone is getting ready, but Nature moves on a broader scale of time. "Where is spring?" we all ask each other. When I see geese, I will know for sure.

The questioning

It's that time of the year again, when the Grand Forks office of the National Weather Service begins to roll out spring flood forecasts. There is a high probability for significant flooding this year -- no surprises there.

2010 was the unofficial "year of floods" at our home. After the spring flood, we had periodic flash floods from rain events throughout the summer, and then another big rain event in the autumn. Add in a record number of tornadoes and swarms of mosquitoes, and you have a year to remember (even if you'd rather forget).

This winter, with its snowfall totals rising by the day and by the storm, is adding what will become inches of water on top of the soil still saturated from the previous autumn. Our insurance company informed us recently that when FEMA re-evaluated their flood maps, our property was determined to be in a zone more susceptible to serious floods than previously thought -- no surprises there either.

At some point, I don't know where or when exactly it was, I began to curse the people who built this house here. There are multitudes of better locations to choose from in this section of this township. In a floodplain such as ours, even a 100-meter shift in location can mean the difference between dust and mud. Why several generations of a family would choose to continue living in mud is a question that remains unanswered. In a sensible world, all parties involved with a vested interest, financial or emotional, would get together to buy this place out. Then, the land would remain a wetland sanctuary to the riparian plants and animals who belong here.

The return to normal

The Red River crested slightly below predicted levels and is now slowly receding from the clay levees and piles of sandbags. Our little tributary has sunk back down to its average level, if such a level exists. You see, in this kind of environment and this kind of landscape, nothing is static. Change is normal. This entire basin, with its countless streams and gravel ridges, is young in geologic time. The Red River is merely the last vestige of a humongous glacial lake. The channel is alive, drifting and slithering back and forth like a snake unsure of its destination. The people living here were hunter-gatherers, then farmers, then industrial and now something else. What is the mathematical mean in such a place? Every thing, every era, every variable is part of the norm.

The parks as lakes

Trollwood Park in Fargo is now Trollwood Lake. Gooseberry Park in Moorhead has also been transformed into a water park. That's why these places are reserved as green spaces. No one should be living here. But in years like this one, the following legitimate question might be asked: Should the green spaces be expanded? That's what Grand Forks did after the catastrophic flood of 1997. Today that community has a beautiful green way up and down the river. Residents use it for recreation and community events. Plus, it allowed room for the construction of a gigantic levee system. Fargo-Moorhead might do well to consider this plan instead of the currently proposed diversion channel.